Maple Leafs, Mutual Funds, and other Addictions

As I watched in awestruck horror, my Maple Leaf hockey team slowly disintegrated before my eyes this winter. It is a very difficult time to be a Leaf fan and it is getting harder to say ‘we will get’em next year”.  Of course my friends all claim to be long time fans of Boston or Chicago or anybody else that has had recent success. Many who claim to be friends seem to take great joy in pointing to the folly of being a fan of such an incredibly bumbling organization. The senior leaders in the Leaf hierarchy continue to insist they care more about winning than making enormous profits; yet year after year they manage to seem cheerful when they tell shareholders about the huge profits they have ‘earned’ (?) for the owners. As I watch this unfold I struggled to find an analogy for being a loyal Leafs fan.

Then, I had an epiphany!  I opened my investment statement and it all became clear. Cheering for the Leafs is the very same as investing in Mutual Funds! How could I not see it before? Think about the following points and see if you agree:

1. They both seemed like a good idea years ago when I invested in them. In the early years (I am mid-fifties in age) the Leafs were winners and life was good for Leaf fans. In the early years Mutual Funds paid double digit returns and investors all made money!
2. Being a fan of the Leafs is an emotional journey. They raise you up just to knock you down again and then they repeat the pattern endlessly. My Mutual Funds have also had great days, weeks, months and even years but they are now worth no more (and often less) than they were worth when I originally invested in them. The crashes are sudden, without warning, and devastating. Sound familiar?
3. The Maple Leafs cannot seem to recognize quality assets. They trade draft picks and young ‘stars- to- be’ for old tired and worn out players. When they do get a good spot in the draft they still manage to find a dud. Not surprising all the top free agents stay away. Funny, when I look back at my fund holdings I see the same story. Stocks bought when they were past their prime and stocks sold just before they went on a tear. Top fund managers leaving for better firms and no quality replacements in sight.
4. Leaf tickets are priced as if the Leafs of old were still here winning championships. Why am I forced to pay huge ticket prices to see a team that stinks! Similarly, Mutual Fund fees are the highest in the world here in Canada and performance also stinks. Paying a couple or 3 per cent on returns of 12-15% was not bad in the eighties. But paying over 2% now for funds that return nothing over a decade seems a bit much. I am being ripped off every way I turn!
5. Sports analysts (talking heads) continually pump up the volume on how great the Leafs will be soon….. not now, but soon! Come the trade deadlines or draft day you would think the Leafs had phenomenal assets to trade or the next great star about to be drafted. Soon we realize it was all B.S. designed to get us to buy more tickets and Leaf jerseys with a new saviors name on the back. As for Mutual Funds, every terrible statement comes with an explanation of why now is the time to invest. Markets are just about to go on a bull run and the newest stock picker hired by the fund company is a real genius! Remember this RRSP season you need to double up on your deposits because this coming year is the big one for investors…..right?
6. Perhaps the biggest similarity is my inability to wean myself off of these addictions. Why would I continue to work with an advisor that I have come to realize is just a salesperson sucking me dry? Why as a Leafs fan do I still turn on the game and start every season thinking this year will be different? Alas to this simple question there is no simple answer!

Having carried the analogy far enough I now see there is one huge difference. I do not really love my advisor/salesperson. I can picture life without them. I can manage my own investments or I can find a low cost fund firm like SteadyHand or Mawer or Leith Wheeler or I can buy low cost ETFs. In short, I have control over whether I use an advisor/salesperson.

As for the Leafs, well matters of the heart are more difficult. I will continue to try to grow apart from the Leafs but I can never, ever, ever, ever cheer for Montreal or Ottawa! That would just be too much to ask of a recovering Leafs addict!

 

 

 

Investor Traps: Covered Call ETFs

One of the big challenges for investors is to ignore information that they discover while researching investment options. A classic example of this is information which seems straight forward but may not be suitable for the portfolio strategy an investor is trying to implement. Part of the challenge is that the marketing arm of the product manufacturers (mutual fund or EFT companies specifically) do a great job of hyping the benefits and an even greater job of downplaying or ignoring the risks of the product. Often new investment products are created for a specific requirement, such as enhancing income or hedging a long position and then they become popular as the “new hot product”!

Let’s look at the example of Jane Smith, an investor in her 60’s approaching retirement shortly and managing her portfolio with a conventional diversified ETF portfolio. Her holdings include ETF’s tracking the TSX60, the S&P 500, EAFE Index (Europe, Australia & Far East) and the Dex Bond Universe. Jane has a strategic asset allocation that is 75% fixed income and 25% equity exposure. This strategy is designed to protect her substantial RRSP holdings from market volatility while holding sufficient equity exposure to protect against any uptick in inflation through equity growth. Jane is looking for returns of inflation plus 2%.

In researching her investment options Jane comes across a new ETF that has been gaining in popularity; a fund that writes covered calls on bank shares. In checking out the ETF Jane sees that the current yield is over 6% at a time when her fixed income portfolio is yielding 3.68% in comparison. Given her concerns about the low interest rates on her large fixed income portfolio Jane contemplates reducing her fixed income ETF holdings by 10% of the portfolio and adding 10% to a “covered call elf” holding.

What Could Go Wrong?

In further reviewing the covered call strategy Jane starts to feel a little less excited about her new strategy. While current yield is great, Jane begins to understand that the greater yield comes with certain risks that are not always readily apparent. That prompts Jane to run through a few scenarios to see how her “new” strategy would react to certain market changes that might occur.

1-      What if interest rates remain low or even go lower? The covered call strategy is based upon implied volatility in stock prices so it does not directly react to interest rate changes. As such it does not directly assist the portfolio to have low interest rates; however if the ETF continues to provide a 6% yield it should have a positive impact on Jane’s portfolio…..right? In fact, since current yield is defined as recent period income divided by portfolio value, a $6 income on a $100 portfolio provides a 6% current yield. If the portfolio drops in value to $75, the current yield becomes 8%. In looking at the 1 year performance of the new fund (just over 1 year old now) Jane discovers the rate of return has been -1.5% from March 2011 to March 2012. That seems perplexing given the fund is yielding such a high amount? Maybe current yield is not the best way to look at this ETF!

2-      What if rates rise sharply? If rates rise the value of Jane’s existing fixed income will likely drop. Fixed income values generally move opposite of interest rates. Obviously the higher rate scenario favours holding covered calls versus fixed income….. right. Well, maybe! If rates rise what will the bank stocks held by the ETF do? Will investors sell stock and buy fixed income when rates rise? If so what will happen to the value of the underlying bank stock? In fact, banks tend to benefit from higher interest rates (think of interest rate spreads as banks raise mortgage rates and credit card rates). While no outcome is guaranteed, Jane is comfortable that if rates rise this strategy should be either slightly positive or neutral in her portfolio.

3-      What if stocks go on a big bull run? If bank stocks benefit from positive stock markets there could well be a doubling or tripling of some bank stocks. After all, TD Bank common stock went from the high $20’s to the low $70’s after the 2008 crash ended! Holding the long positions on bank stock in the ETF might bring a real growth spurt to the portfolio. Right? Well, actually no. While the ETF holds a lot of bank stock, the gain from an increase in the underlying stock values would benefit the investors that bought the covered call options. If a stock was valued at $60 and a covered call was sold at $62.00, the ETF would make a profit of $2.00 plus the option premium of perhaps $1.00. If the bank stock went to $80/share the ETF would still only see a maximum of $3.00 from the $20.00 increase! Suddenly giving up a $20/share gain for $3 does not seem as positive.

4-      What if the stock market plunges downward?  The covered call strategy is a “defensive strategy” (according to the marketing material anyway) so it must protect my portfolio from large losses…..right? It would seem to make sense that the offset to sacrificing large gains when markets rise (scenario 3 above) would be that my portfolio would be sheltered from large losses in return….. right?  Well, actually, no! That is not the case with covered calls. If the bank stocks dropped from $60/share to $40/share the fund would need to hold the shares for the length of time that the call option remains in place to insure the option remains a “covered call” and not a “naked call”. The fund holds the stock regardless of the market performance and the only income to offset the loss is the small call premium (our $1 theoretical premium as above). The net result is that the fund looses $19/share instead of the $20/share the market drop infers. 

Given the above analysis, Jane pulls out her original Investment Policy Statement and reviews her strategy. The equity holdings are designed to provide growth which protects the portfolio from being eroded by inflation. That is accomplished by using gains from a rising stock market to cushion any losses in fixed income values caused by inflation. Since the covered call strategy limits market gains the covered call strategy works against Jane’s overall strategy.

Jane’s original strategy called for limited equity exposure to ensure stock market losses do not diminish Jane’s nest egg. The covered call strategy leaves the portfolio exposed to any significant market drops so that also works against Jane’s original strategy. 

Decision: In looking at all options Jane realizes that the covered call option is a higher risk strategy than holding fixed income and it has the potential to 1) dampen equity growth, 2) expose the portfolio to large equity losses, and 3) in a low volatility stock market with concurrent low interest rates, it could increase current yield slightly. In short the covered call strategy can help a little or hurt a lot, but it cannot significantly improve her portfolio. Jane reviews her portfolio performance against her goal of making returns of “inflation plus 2%” and finds she is currently still meeting her target rate of return. As such she decides not to utilize the covered call ETF that all her friends are excited about. What she will do is file away the information. Every product serves a purpose but not every purpose serves a portfolio strategy. In this case doing what is popular with investors today and what appears to offer immediate benefit would actually weaken the investment strategy and change the risk profile on the portfolio. Sacrificing equity gains while taking full equity market risk is a poor trade off. As well not making the addition to the portfolio keeps the MER lower, reduces trading costs to rebalance the portfolio, and makes the portfolio simpler to monitor. Jane knows that an investment portfolio is like a bar of soap….the more you handle it the smaller it tends to get! 

Note: Covered calls on bank equities were the most popular strategic ETFs in the first quarter of 2012. The largest volume growth was a bank shares focused covered call ETF that provided returns of just over 7%. Holding direct common shares in TD bank provided over 10% capital gains as well as additional dividend income. The covered call strategy provided an enhancement in returns versus fixed income however it provides the risk profile of equity. When properly compared to narrow focused bank equity returns the results were less than stellar. The message is not that covered calls are a bad strategy for everybody. The important message is that any security you purchase needs to support your overall investment strategy, your portfolio risk profile, and your investment return requirement. Covered call strategies are marketed as a lower risk strategy and generally compared to fixed income investments. In fact they are equity and should be considered a higher risk strategy with a potential downside far greater than any typical fixed income strategy. Risking a 20% or 30% downside or missing a 20% or 30% gain are high prices to pay for the extra yield you may see in the short term.

SRO’s Fiddle While Investors Burn

SROs Fiddle While Investors Get Burned 

IIROC has recently released new information on the implementation of its chosen Customer Relationship Model (CRM). Before I add any comments let us take a look at how IIROC describes itself and the quality of their work on behalf of investors..

“IIROC is the national self-regulatory organization which oversees all investment dealers and trading activity on debt and equity marketplaces in Canada. IIROC sets high quality regulatory and investment industry standards, protects investors and strengthens market integrity while maintaining efficient and competitive capital markets.”

 

That gem is found in the March 26^th news release issued by IIROC.  Perhaps a less egocentric organization might have stated that it has “a mandate to set high quality regulatory and investment industry standards…..”, however IIROC appears to have declared victory.

Sadly, IIROC acts just like most self regulatory organizations (SRO). They react late, water down the regulations to reflect the desires of the dealers, and generally only act when the pressure to do something becomes embarrassing. And do not kid yourselves, these folks do not embarrass easily.

The current move in the CRM model to clarify fees is far too late and the ability of salespeople to call themselves advisors regardless of any qualification standards seems to go unchallenged. As to having salespeople provide better information on risk, well that is almost impossible since no credible standard exists on how to rank a mutual fund’s risk profile. In effect, the standard is that each fund can set its own risk ranking so long as they feel it is appropriate. Wow, feel safe?

The mandate to set high quality standards was never intended to read as “minimum standard that is acceptable to all stakeholders”. In fact the idea of utilizing an SRO seems to be something that is never questioned in Canada, unlike more advanced investment markets in the U.S. and Britain. Whether it is the Canadian Medical Association never seeming to sanction doctors until the media gets involved or the regulatory bodies that rarely expel a Certified Financial Analyst in spite of the numerous investor complaints; it seems that in Canada the major role of an SRO is to lie low, deflect criticism, and act only when forced to. It is safe to say no bold initiative ever originates with an SRO.

 

“So what”, you say? The net result is that Canada continues to fall further behind other nations when it comes to protecting investors. Specifically, I mean protecting small retail investors. So what would make me happy you ask? How about some big thoughts! Some regulations that would actually drive real change and turn the industry in a different direction. Here are three ideas that would change the landscape for investors in Canada:

 

1-      The first is a very simple move to protect investors and is at least partially in place in a number of countries. Ban deferred sales charges (DSC, Back End Load) and trailer fees. Investors can either pay the salesperson an up-front fee or pay an on-going fee to the salesperson directly. Hidden third party fees are never a good solution for investors.

2-      Require all mutual fund salespeople to become licensed to sell ETF securities. No salesperson selling mutual funds should be able to do so without providing a comparisons to both the top selling ETF fund in terms of performance and fees, as well as the cheapest priced mutual fund in the same category. This is a low threshold but one that is not even being talked about. Consumers do not know their options and this would force salespeople to at least acknowledge that lower cost options are available.

3-      Any person selling securities should have a fiduciary obligation to put the client’s interest before their own. Most investors already think this is the case and are shocked to find their interests are not primary and often not even secondary in the process. Salespeople currently can first look to what pays the most commission, then look to see what most benefits their parent company, and then select any fund that meets those requirements and is deemed “suitable” for the client and sell it to an unsuspecting investor.

 

Do I think any of these changes will happen? Actually, yes I do. They will happen when every other major country has already made similar changes. It will be very late and not likely in my lifetime. Look to Australia where governments are not afraid to challenge the financial status quo; look to the U.S. where litigation helps shape regulations; and look to Britain where government has created regulatory bodies with a true focus on protecting investors.

In Canada we can dream big……but we do not have the courage to take on the establishment….yet!

Mike

False Prophets/Profits

The stock markets are approaching new highs and once again exuberance reigns supreme! The stock prophets who promised big returns in the equity markets are encouraging investors to double down and enjoy the run on the markets. What could possibly go wrong? Business profits are sky high, employment is bouncing back, and commodity prices remain strong.

Most importantly, the problems of the Euro are behind us, the U.S. government is back to being functional, debt levels have dropped and……..what? The Euro problems are not solved? The U.S. government is not functional? Debt levels continue to rise and workers are losing the battle against price inflation and need two jobs to pay their debts?

In reality, the 1% are doing just fine and the 99% continue to tread water or lose ground each month. While the market gurus shout the smallest pieces of good news to the high heavens the reality is that this appears to be another non-sustainable rally. What the market prophets need now is for the mutual fund investors to once again plough back into the markets and buy the high priced shares before the next pull back begins. So before that happens, let’s get a more balanced look at the market realities.

1-      Greece has defaulted on its debt. You can called it an “orderly” restructuring but if you hold Greek bonds you just got destroyed. That of course includes a wide variety of Greek banks, Greek pension funds, and European banks. Few believe that the Greek people will accept the harsh credit terms forced upon the government and if they do a severe and long depression are all the Greeks can look forward to. This is the beginning of the end for Greece but the beginning of the problem for Italy, Spain and Portugal.

2-      The U.S. government just extended tax cuts that will add another $40 Billion to the deficit. This is what passes for “functional” in the U.S. these days. The day of reckoning may not have arrived yet but following the next election the government will need to slash spending, jobs, and start reducing government employees. The individual states are already slashing teachers, police and firefighters to balance budgets. You can expect a few States to flirt with bankruptcy before the end of 2012 and into 2013. I somehow doubt the current congress will assist with State bailouts.

3-      Moody’s just announced it is looking to downgrade the credit worthiness of the largest banks in the world. In short….”big is bad” in a world where “too big to fail” refers to countries now, not corporations. With trillions in credit default swaps still out there, even a single bank collapse could re-ignite another credit crisis. The fact that Moodies named RBC should not suggest every other Canadian bank would not be swept up in the storm.

4-      Meanwhile, I have been looking at house prices here in Palm Desert, California and it is hard to imagine the U.S. housing market is improving much. A 4 year old 2 bedroom home on a high end golf course in a gated community is listed at $119,000 and has been on the market six months. The real estate papers list hundreds of multi-million dollar properties that all state “reduced prices” and are not expected to sell off for months if not years. Statistics can lie if properly manipulated by experts.

5-      The best evidence of irrational exuberance is in this weeks’ story of the attempted sale of shares in Rubicon by TD Bank and GMP Brokerage. They overestimated the number of suckers who would pay $4.10 per share and ended up eating the shares and re-selling at $3.73 per share. Apparently the wise money stayed on the sidelines and refused to speculate on future market gains. The TD and GMP folks did not count on the usually gullible small investors staying away from the sales pitch.

So what is the message? Be cautious of what you read in the papers and what you hear from your salesperson/advisor. When business is slow the prophets will accent the slightest positives to push markets higher. We have seen small successes in U.S. jobs reports and some temporary band-aid solutions to avoid an unstructured collapse in Europe. What we have not seen are solutions or cures to our major economic problems. Do not trust salespeople to give you the full story, EVER!

My trusted stock analyst, Albert, put it best when he commented “never be totally in the market or totally out of the market and you will never be totally wrong”. Wise words in these interesting times!

INVESTING IN BAD TIMES

The current investment climate is about as bad as it gets when you look back over an extended time period. Canadian investors have watched as equities vary between days of terror (huge market drops) and days of despair (slow death via multiple days of small declines). The odd good day or week in the markets seems to just tease us for what might have been had we invested in the 90’s instead of this century! Even the old standby, the Money Market Fund, has proven to be neither safe nor profitable. We lamented the lost decade for equities from 2000 to 2010, and then started the new decade with negative equity markets for 2011.

So what can we do and what should we do!

1-      We CAN stop adding to the problems by making poor decisions about our investment strategy. The typical investor in a MF or ETF Index fund will make significantly less than the fund itself over the course of a typical year. That is because investors jump in and out of the equities market based upon the current emotions they are feeling. Studies show that this undisciplined approach will cost investors up to 4% less return than a mutual fund would make on average. Professionals do NOT jump in and out of the markets based upon emotions. They follow an Investment policy Statement (IPS) that outlines the minimum and maximum percentages of equity that MUST be held in the portfolio. For those that wondered about the definition of “re-balancing” a portfolio; that is the term used for bringing a portfolio in line with its IPS guidelines. Without an IPS you CANNOT re-balance your portfolio!

2-      We CAN stop pretending that the folks who make a good living managing investments have an ability to predict what stocks will go up or down next week or next year. Professionals can help you select stocks which have good balance sheets and good management in place. They can also help you ensure your portfolio is well diversified. Other than that, professional stock traders are of little use unless they can provide insider information (which in general is illegal). In 2011 the consensus forecast of investment managers in Canada was for stocks to outperform bonds and commodities. It will come as no shock that a) they were wrong, and b) they have made the same forecast for 2012. In fairness…..they eventually will be correct just based on the law of averages!

3-      We CAN reduce the fees we pay. With investor returns at historic lows we cannot continue to give a guaranteed 2-2.5% return to investment salespeople. If markets were to provide you with the 4%-5% returns we expect in the near future, a fee of 2.25% would be 45-55% of your total investment return. In years where markets drop, like 2011, the fee just increases your losses. If you negotiated a fee of 1.25% you would be giving up only 25% of the same return forecast! If you used ETF Index funds you could reduce the fee drain to a fee of .25% and have only a 6% fee drain.

While markets are certainly tough it does not mean we cannot do better. A little effort, some simple strategies and a calm demeanour can go a long way to lessening the pain of being an investor today!

If you need an IPS then ask an independent (non-selling) firm to customize one for you!

Soismike

Why 2011 investment Forecasts Stunk!

Well, it was another year of frustration for “real investors”. By “real investor” I mean those of us who trade without access to inside information and who cannot augment our returns through hidden fees or commissions. While we will lick our wounds and carry on, we should also track where the smart “professionals” were focused in 2011 to see where we missed the boat.

Consensus Forecasting for 2011: The “professionals” forecast the market performances every year and then a “consensus report” is tabulated to allow us to peak under the curtain and see what active traders are doing to beat the markets. The asset class forecasts were very clear that security performance in 2011 would see returns ranked as follows:

-          Equity stocks would be the best performing asset class

-          Commodities would be the second best performing class of assets, and

-          Bonds would trail the above classes and provide weak performance

Based upon the forecast, you would overweight equities, diversify with commodities, and minimize your bond holdings.

Let’s see how well the smart money did in forecasting 2011.

-          Equity returns in Canada ( TSX broad market total return index) -8.71% and if you choose to look just at the blue chip TSX 60 returns were -9.08%

-          Commodities as measured by the Auspice Broad Commodity Index was 1.78% to the positive side

-          Bonds as measured by the Dex Bond Universe was up 9.7%

Wow, the smartest guys on the street managed to show an amazing dyslexia of returns! They used thousands of analysts to crank out the research math and got everything backwards! In fairness however, the forecasts were great for revenues at the brokerage firms as investors traded heavily into the markets based upon the forecasts. By the end of the investment rich RRSP seasons investors had bid up the equity markets and the research looked great. However, once all the suckers….um, investors were fully invested, the professionals did a quick sprint to the exits, leaving the retail investors holding a smelly mess of equities. The TSX dropped from the lofty mid 12,000’s to the more realistic low 11,000’s. Unfortunately, those who followed the advice in late February and early March can only wish they had lost 8 or 9%! In fact many will see 15-20% drops with their RRSP investment money.

So, how did a conservative indexer do in this type of market? If the pro’s got it wrong we can only assume the indexers got creamed! Our conservative 50/50 balanced model would have received the returns of a typical mix of ETFs somewhat like the following:

ASSET CLASS	WEIGHTING	ETF SYMBOL	RETURN
Cdn Equity	25%	XIU	-9.22
US Equity	12.5%	XSP	1.07
EAFE	12.5%	XIN	-12.7
Bond	50%	XBB	9.38
Total	100%		0.92%

Well, it was definitely a tough year; however staying diversified reduced the damage significantly. Even if investors reduced the risk by splitting the fixed income between short and long duration bonds (50% XBB and 50% XSB), the overall return would be -0.3% for the year 2011.

Obviously the higher the Canadian equity component or the EAFE equity component, the worse the overall portfolio performance. For those active traders that jumped on the gold bandwagon the entry point was a challenge. On the whole XGD (the gold ETF) was down 14% and the much recommended emerging markets saw a decline of 16.4% as measured by the emerging market index. So, if you followed the professionals you were heavy equities, heavy emerging markets, heavy gold and light weight bonds. If you followed your Investment Policy Strategy as a conservative investor you retained your capital! Thank goodness I am a dull investor with a conservative IPS!

soismike

Weigh House Blog Returns!

We just wanted to send out a short note to confirm that our blog will once again be active. Our goal remains to initiate discussion and to provide a perspective that reflects our thoughts and concerns with regards to the current investment industry.

Our new blogs will be authored, for the most part, by myself, Mike Macdonald, and will reflect the content released simultaneously on the blog “unbiasedadvisor.blogspot.com” which is written under the name “soismike” ( a throwback to our corporate roots as Second Opinion Investor Services”).  While our posts will be less frequent than we previously published, we hope each posting will help engage our readers in the investment world, financial planning, and our current markets.

mike macdonald